Bolivia unrest: Coup or no coup?
More than 40 years have passed since Bolivia last faced the threat of military intervention. Between 1964 and 1982, the country was under nearly continuous military rule, but since then, it has enjoyed a democratic government.
The recent storming of the presidential palace in La Paz by Gen Juan José Zúñiga has evoked memories of that tumultuous era. Despite Gen Zúñiga’s subsequent arrest, questions remain about the true nature of the incident.
Gen Zúñiga claimed the military acted at President Luis Arce’s request amid an ideological struggle within the government, which has stalled governance in Bolivia.
This interpretation suggests the president might benefit politically by portraying himself as a defender of democracy. Bolivian political analyst Carlos Toranzo highlighted the ambiguity, stating, “There is little clarity whether this was an attempted coup or a staged event by the government itself.”
According to Toranzo, the uprising appears to have been an isolated action, lacking broader military support across Bolivia’s regions. Following the deployment of troops to La Paz’s Murillo Square and attempted entry into government buildings, authorities presented 17 individuals allegedly involved in the coup attempt.
According to government minister Eduardo del Castillo, a police investigation had determined that planning for it had begun in May.
One of the alleged civilian masterminds, Aníbal Aguilar Gómez, rejected the accusations, declaring himself on hunger strike.
The concept of the self-coup or the “autogolpe” has long been part of the Latin American political lexicon.
Circumstances always differ, but the term usually refers to a sitting president who seeks to seize extraordinary and unlawful powers, having been frustrated by normal democratic limitations.
Now the word is being bandied about once more. But whether or not it is true in this case, how did things get this bad?
Well, it all dates back to one watershed moment in Bolivia’s recent history: the presidential election in 2005, when coca-growers’ union boss Evo Morales came to power.
Until then, the country had been ruled by an elite descended from European settlers, largely to the detriment of the indigenous majority. But sadly, the improvement in their lot that they had expected as a result of Mr Morales being elected never really came.
“There were moments in the Evo Morales presidency in which Bolivia looked set for a real take-off,” Monica de Bolle, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, told the BBC.
Mr Morales acted decisively to reshape Bolivia, nationalising the country’s huge gas fields.
He served two terms as president, during which the price of natural gas, the mainstay of the country’s economy, was buoyant. That attracted investment, especially from China.
But then global commodity prices fell, leading to what Ms de Bolle describes as “a slow-motion balance-of-payments crisis” that has now reached a “critical juncture”.
Bolivia has not run out of gas, but the industry has gone into decline because successive governments have not been able to invest in it.
As a result, natural gas exports have plunged, depleting the country’s foreign exchange reserves, while inflation has soared.
In 2019, Mr Morales ran for a third term in office, in defiance of the constitution, and was duly re-elected. However, he resigned within weeks and left the country after street protests ensued and the head of the army called on him to go.
An interim administration took power, in what Mr Morales’ supporters denounced as a coup. But the following year, his left-wing Movement for Socialism (Mas) party was returned to power, this time under President Arce.
Now, with the next presidential election due in 2025, Mr Morales is back in Bolivia and determined to run again, thus making him a bitter political rival of Mr Arce.
“The power struggle between the two is hampering the government’s ability to do things that make the situation a little better for the population at large,” says Ms de Bolle.
That means the principal supporters of Mas are the ones worst affected by the country’s paralysis – and the party’s right-wing opponents have the opportunity to discredit the left’s entire political project.
The threat to Bolivia’s democracy has receded, for now – but there is no end in sight for the country’s economic turmoil.
