EU elections start with tight Dutch race – exit poll
Dutch citizens have commenced a four-day voting process throughout the European Union, with preliminary results indicating a close competition between a left-green coalition and the anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders’ party.
Anticipations of significant gains for right-wing and far-right factions across the EU’s 27 member states seem to be materializing, particularly in the Netherlands.
While the Green-Labour coalition is projected to secure more seats in the European Parliament based on exit polls, Wilders’ Freedom Party is poised for substantial advancements, albeit not replicating the overwhelming victory seen in last November’s general election.
Final results, in accordance with European regulations, are withheld until all member states conclude their voting, usually by late Sunday. The electorate spans 373 million Europeans, making it the world’s second-largest democratic election after India.
The forthcoming European Parliament will consist of 720 seats, allocated proportionately to each country’s population. Germany, France, and Italy, for instance, will respectively hold 96, 81, and 76 seats, while the Netherlands will have 31.
The Dutch exit poll will be closely monitored throughout Europe for potential insights into emerging trends on the continent, though voters often prioritize national issues as much as European policies.
Ireland, Malta, and the Czech Republic will cast their votes on Friday, with the rest of the EU following suit over the weekend.
A rightward shift has been widely anticipated in this election, with far-right parties eyeing triumphs in France, Belgium, Austria, and Italy.
Their opponents are likely to take some satisfaction from Thursday night’s exit poll, because of the Green/Labour alliance’s performance. Geert Wilders’ party came first in Dutch national elections last November, and has secured a cabinet deal with three other parties, even though he will not be prime minister.
Any substantial shift to the right in the make-up of the European Parliament could affect EU policies on climate change, agriculture and potentially defence.
According to the Ipsos I&O poll of 20-30,000 Dutch voters at 35 polling stations, the Dutch centre-left alliance under former European Commissioner Frans Timmermans is on course to win eight seats, one more than Mr Wilders’ Freedom Party.
However, the margin of error is such that the race is too close to call. Turnout was estimated at almost 47%, a five-point rise on five years ago. Before the vote there had been talk of voter fatigue after months of wrangling over the formation of a new government.
Mr. Wilders said he was delighted with the “nice result”. It was only an exit poll but it was clear that the Freedom Party was the big winner, he said, as his party had only one seat in the outgoing European Parliament. Another far-right party, which has been on the slide for months, is on course to lose all four of its seats.
The exit poll is an indication of just how polarised the Dutch vote has become, with a pro-European party in favor of climate change policies in the lead, closely followed by Mr. Wilders, who wants less Europe and promises a government with “the strongest asylum policy ever”.
However, commentators pointed out that an estimated two-thirds of votes had been picked up by pro-EU parties, many of them centrist or liberal.
Migration and asylum were the most important factors for Dutch voters, according to Ipsos, and that is likely to be reflected in much of the rest of Europe.
Voters the BBC spoke to at a variety of polling stations in The Hague on Thursday talked about security as well as the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. Many said a stronger EU was essential in the face of global insecurity.
While a quarter of Dutch voters said they were motivated by European politics, 21% said it was domestic politics, and 48% said it was a combination of the two.
