French PM in final appeal to stop far-right victory
France’s swift election campaign has concluded, and despite efforts to dissuade support for the far-right National Rally party, voters seem poised to deliver a landmark victory in parliamentary elections. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal cautioned against the potential rise of “impulses of hate and aggression.”
However, the party led by Marine Le Pen and the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, a potential future prime minister, has solidified its position in opinion polls. Despite facing accusations of racism involving both members and supporters, National Rally is now focused on securing an absolute majority in the upcoming two-round elections over the next Sundays.
Following the European elections on June 9, which marked much of France’s electoral map in dark blue, Emmanuel Macron surprised the nation by calling for a snap general election within just three weeks.
National Rally (RN) anticipates significant gains, with recent polls indicating support at 36.5%. Their candidates aim to secure numerous seats outright in the National Assembly, although most seats will be decided in runoff votes on July 7, potentially involving multiple contenders.
However, the outcome remains unpredictable, with a hastily formed left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front, closely trailing RN with 29% support. The Ensemble alliance, led by Gabriel Attal, ranks third at 20.5% according to Ifop polling. Attal argues that both main opposing blocs represent extremes.
In the recent European elections, no region of mainland France supported the National Rally more than L’Aisne, a rural northern department where they garnered just over 50% of the vote.
Since 2022, L’Aisne has already had three RN MPs, and in the historic town of Villers-Cotterêts, they have had a National Rally mayor, Franck Briffaut, for a decade.
A party veteran of more than 40 years, going back to its old National Front days under Jean-Marie Le Pen, he feels the path to power has been inevitable, in the same way that Giorgia Meloni won elections in Italy.
But like many in his party, he won’t settle for anything less than an absolute majority in the National Assembly, which would require at least 289 of the 577 parliamentary seats.
“I won’t be part of it, because it’s a trap set by Macron. I’m also convinced that if we get an absolute majority, he has to be made to leave. As long as he’s there, we can’t put through the entirety of our programme. Because we need changes to the constitution.”
President Macron has promised he is not going anywhere until his term ends in 2027, and it is his task to appoint the next prime minister after the second round of these elections on 7 July.
Jordan Bardella, whose campaign posters have “prime minister” written underneath his name, insists he won’t settle for less than an absolute majority.
That does leave open the question of who Mr Macron will choose if RN falls short. “There’s no point in Emmanuel Macron naming a prime minister nobody would want,” says constitutional expert Prof Dominique Rousseau. But if there’s no absolute majority, he says the president has room to manoeuvre.
It would usually come from the biggest party, but if they refused, he could look for a consensus figure instead, who could pull together what remains of the centre right and centre left.
For now, it is Jordan Bardella who is doing all the running, announcing during a TV debate two nights ago that he has some kind of “government of national unity” in waiting.
Mr Bardella has promised a government of all the talents, including as yet unknown “sincere patriots who have France’s sovereignty at heart”. However, he did name former conservative leader Eric Ciotti, who alienated most of his colleagues when he struck up an alliance with RN.
It may not sound convincing, and the prospect of power-sharing – or “cohabitation” – with President Macron sounds like three highly difficult years in French politics.
National Rally chief Marine Le Pen has already raised tensions by appearing to call into question the president’s role as commander-in-chief of the armed forces as merely “honorary”.
The intensity of this election campaign, and its importance, have prompted Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin to warn of the risk that the “ultra-left and ultra-right” may try to sow chaos after both rounds of the election. He has called on local prefects to exercise vigilance.
