Macron gambles on snap election after crushing defeat to far-right
President Emmanuel Macron has announced impromptu parliamentary elections for later this month following a significant victory for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in the European Parliament elections.
According to exit polls, the far-right party is poised to secure 32% of the vote, surpassing the president’s Renaissance party by more than double.
In a televised address from the Élysée Palace, Macron declared the dissolution of parliament and scheduled two rounds of voting for June 30 and July 7, strategically ahead of the Paris Olympics. His decision, made shortly after the closure of voting and the release of exit polls from the EU elections, was prompted by National Rally’s strong showing and a direct appeal from their 28-year-old leader, Jordan Bardella, for parliamentary elections.
Acknowledging the electorate’s message, Macron affirmed his commitment to respond by ensuring France attains a clear majority marked by serenity and harmony. He expressed concern over the far-right’s ascension across Europe and emphasized the necessity for decisive action.
With just two years into his second presidential term and lacking a parliamentary majority, Macron deemed it imperative to seek a fresh popular mandate, despite the ostensibly unrelated nature of the European elections to national politics. He concluded that continuing his mandate without consulting the populace anew would strain the system excessively.
Ms. Le Pen, who has twice been defeated by Mr. Macron in presidential elections, immediately reacted, saying her party was “ready to exercise power, ready to put an end to mass immigration”.
Calling a snap election is a huge surprise for the country and a huge risk for President Macron.
He could have reacted differently. He could have just kept going, explaining the far right’s massive victory as a European aberration which would be corrected at more important elections.
He could have trusted the impending European football championship in Germany and above all the Paris Olympics to keep people’s minds off politics for a couple of months.
That was certainly how the Paris commentariat thought he would take his party’s rout.
But one can only assume the president had seen this coming and planned his response.
Certainly, the result was an almost replica of the polls, so he would have had plenty of time to consider his options.
The fact is that he is stuck.
Without a majority, getting any bill through the National Assembly is already a struggle. With most of the country now so clearly against him, any new legislation – for example, the upcoming budget – could have proved explosive.
So he has plumped for “clarity”. If National Rally has the votes then, he says, they should be given the chance to govern.
Obviously the president will hope his own Renaissance party can mount a fight-back at the elections on 30 June and 7 July. Or that other parties will do well better too.
But he must appreciate that the odds favour another victory for National Rally. Maybe not one so sweeping as Sunday’s result, but enough for it to become the biggest party in parliament.
At which point we might well have a Prime Minister Marine Le Pen, or indeed Jordan Bardella.
