Macron’s election gamble puts French democracy on the table
Two neighboring countries are heading into unexpected elections, both anticipating the downfall of their current governments.
Political tensions have deeply divided communities in both nations. However, any attempt to draw parallels between the British and French elections must cease. The stakes in France far surpass those in the UK.
Here, the very foundation of the political system hangs in the balance, not merely the fate of a government or leader.
The decision by President Macron to call a snap election, following a significant defeat by the far right in European parliament elections, has plunged France into uncertainty.
His hope for a rapid campaign to steer voters away from extremist views appears uncertain, with the far-right National Rally leading in polls and a left-wing alliance poised to challenge.
Potential outcomes range from a far-right majority to a hung parliament, threatening economic instability, street violence, and potentially, institutional collapse. The situation in France, unlike the UK, navigates uncharted waters, with profound implications for its future.
Across France, people are aware that the country is at a dangerous crossroads.
“When Macron called the election on the evening of the European elections, I called my children and said – you do realize we are living a historic moment,” says Juliette Vilgrain, a candidate for Horizons – a party allied to Macron – in the Seine-et-Marne department south of Paris.
“People know that violence is a possibility. People are angry and frustrated – and some politicians will call for violence. It’s manipulation, but that’s how it is.”
President Macron has himself even alluded to the possibility of “civil war” – saying this was the logical conclusion of the programs of the far right and the far left.
His words – in a podcast on Monday – have been interpreted as a bid to scare voters back towards the center, but according to Baverez that is deeply misguided.
“It’s very dangerous for him to use this word, and try to save his power by using fear. In a democracy when you play on fears, you give rise to hate and violence,” he says.
Macron’s Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin has said the authorities are working on the assumption that there could be violent protests on the evenings of the first and second rounds (June 30 and July 7).
The nightmare scenario would be an RN victory leading to calls from the far left for demonstrations, which then turn violent and are joined by people of immigrant origin from the banlieues.
The far-left LFI has a large support base in the banlieues and has made support for Gaza one of its main campaign themes.
How political instability might then affect the Olympic Games, which begin less than three weeks after the vote, is another of the questions that seem not to have been taken into account by the president.
For Baverez, however great the differences, there is one parallel that can be drawn between the French and UK elections.
“France is having its populist moment,” he says.
“The US and the UK had theirs ten years ago, with Trump and Brexit. France was spared then because of the strength of our institutions, but also because of the umbrella of the euro.
“Being in the euro meant that governments here could keep doing what they always do: buying social peace by increasing the public debt. Well, now it’s over.”
