South Africans vote with ANC majority in the balance
South Africans are preparing to vote in the most crucial election since the end of apartheid in 1994. Over 27 million people are registered to participate in a poll that underscores increasing political fragmentation after 30 years of democracy.
A record number of 70 parties and 11 independents are competing in this election, where South Africans will elect a new parliament and nine provincial legislatures.
“The significant rise in parties indicates disillusionment with the traditional major parties or, as some cynics might say, a desire to enter parliament and secure a pension,” political analyst Richard Calland told the BBC.
The African National Congress (ANC), which has been in power since Nelson Mandela led it to victory at the end of white-minority rule, is seeking a seventh term. Although confident of a “decisive victory,” opinion polls suggest the ANC may lose its parliamentary majority for the first time, potentially necessitating a coalition with opposition parties.
“We are entering a new phase of our democracy, and it will be a major transition,” Prof Calland told the BBC. “We will either become a more competitive and mature democracy, or our politics will become more fractured.”
The campaign has focused on widespread government corruption, extremely high unemployment rates, especially among youth, deteriorating public services, and rampant crime.
The main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), has formed a coalition pact with 10 other parties, planning to create a coalition government if they can secure enough votes to unseat the ANC. However, this is unlikely, as the ANC is expected to remain the largest party, likely leading a coalition.
In the last election, the ANC received 57.5% of the vote compared to the DA’s 21%.
Former President Jacob Zuma caused a stir in December when he announced he was leaving the ANC to campaign for a new party, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), meaning Spear of the Nation. Although barred from running for parliament due to a contempt of court conviction, his name will still appear on the ballot as the MK leader.
Opinion polls suggest MK will get about 10% of the vote. It is expected to do especially well in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal, where tensions have been high, with some incidents of violence reported during the campaign.
“The election in KwaZulu-Natal could become very messy – expect a lot of disputes and contestation over the results,” Prof Calland said.
Women make up 55% of registered voters – around 15 million, according to statistics released by the Electoral Commission.
In terms of age group, voter registration is highest among those who are 30 to 39 years old. They make up almost seven million of the 26.7 million voters.
But, said, Prof Calland, around 13.7 million eligible voters did not register, with most of them – eight million – below the age of 30.
“They have turned their backs on our young democracy. The assumption is that they have lost hope, feeling economically excluded and seeing no viable opposition,” he added.
This view was borne out by 29-year-old Keabetswe Maleka, who lives in Soweto, which was the epicenter of a student uprising against apartheid in 1976.
In an interview with BBC Africa Daily podcast presenter Mpho Lakaje, he said he would not be voting because of bad public services, and because he is unemployed.
“I’m looking for a job. Nothing is happening,” he said.
Another Soweto resident, Mawela Rezant, 66, said he would be voting in the hope that the next government would tackle unemployment and crime.
“I’m hoping to see our economy grow. I’m hoping to see the police out in full force,” he added.
Police and the army have been deployed to polling stations across the country to ensure that voting takes place peacefully, and that ballot papers are not stolen.
