South Africa’s ANC has to share power after election blow
South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa faces mounting pressure following his leadership of the ruling African National Congress (ANC), which suffered its poorest electoral outcome in three decades, necessitating power-sharing.
With nearly all ballots tallied from Wednesday’s election, the ANC stands at 40%, a stark decline from 58% in the previous election and below the party’s anticipated worst-case scenario of 45%, as per analysts.
Since the country’s inaugural democratic elections in 1994, when Nelson Mandela assumed the presidency, the ANC has consistently garnered majority support, always polling above 50%. However, discontent over rampant corruption, unemployment, and crime has precipitated a notable decline in the party’s popularity.
Citing economic hardships and frequent power outages, one voter, who had backed the ANC for three decades, opted for the center-right Democratic Alliance (DA) this time, expressing dissatisfaction with the ANC’s governance.
The Electoral Commission, in a late Saturday briefing, affirmed readiness to disclose the complete results on Sunday, assuring review of objections from multiple political parties and readiness for recounts if necessary.
Final results are expected to be unveiled at 18:00 local time (17:00 BST), determining the seat distribution in the National Assembly, albeit the country’s strict proportional representation system providing a preexisting estimation.
According to a BBC source, ANC leadership, including President Ramaphosa, is engaged in deliberations on the next steps and bracing for intricate coalition negotiations.
Its options are a coalition with the DA, which is in second place at 22%, or the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party led by former President Jacob Zuma, at 15%.
The radical Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) is on 9%, so a coalition of those two parties would fall just short of the required 50%.
The new parliament must be sworn in within two weeks of the final results and the new president would normally be chosen then.
Both the EFF and MK advocate seizing white-owned land and nationalizing the country’s mines – policies that would alarm foreign investors.
The MK has said it would be prepared to work with the ANC, but not while Mr Ramaphosa led it.
He replaced Mr Zuma as both president and ANC leader following a bitter power struggle in 2018.
MK supporters have been celebrating overnight in Durban, the biggest city in the party’s heartland of KwaZulu-Natal province. The party was only formed in September.
ANC chairperson Gwede Mantashe said his party was unlikely to ally with the DA.
He said there would have to be “policy alignment” between parties to form a coalition agreement.
For the ANC, its black empowerment policies – aimed at giving black people a stake in the economy following their exclusion during the racist apartheid era – were “non-negotiable”.
He added that any coalition partner would have to agree to the National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill, which promises universal healthcare for all, signed into law earlier this month.
The DA opposes both the NHI and the ANC’s black empowerment policies.
Despite the ANC’s reluctance to align with the DA, its leader John Steenhuisen hasn’t ruled out the idea.
But if an alliance with the ANC were reached, there would be a few non-negotiables, he said.
“Respect for the rule of law and the constitution, a social market economy that treats the private sector as partners in the growth agenda.
“Zero tolerance for corruption and cadre deployment, and an absolute laser-like focus on economic policies that grow jobs.”
Mr Steenhuisen also told the BBC he would have to consult pre-election coalition partners before considering any negotiations.
But he ruled out the EFF and the MK party as potential coalition partners.
“I think instability is not in the best interest of the country. A coalition with the radical left in South Africa of the MK party and the EFF will produce the same policies that destroyed Zimbabwe, destroyed Venezuela,” he said.
A record 70 parties and 11 independents were running, with South Africans voting for a new parliament and nine provincial legislatures.
The DA has signed a pact with 10 of them, agreeing to form a coalition government if they get enough votes to dislodge the ANC from power.
But this does not include the EFF or MK, who would be needed to form a majority.
As the parties scramble to form alliances, Kenya’s former President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is leading the African Union election observer mission in South Africa, offered some advice for forming coalitions.
He said coalition governments need to focus on areas of agreement instead of differences.
“I can only wish them well and hope that the leadership will take this decision by the people in a positive frame,” he said.
