Following months of delay, the House of Representatives is poised to vote on allocating tens of billions of dollars in US military aid for both Ukraine and Israel.
These measures face opposition within Congress, with their prospects relying on a delicate bipartisan coalition to navigate legislative obstacles.
A procedural vote on Thursday signaled strong support for the upcoming votes. Debate is scheduled to commence with voting anticipated later on Saturday.
House Speaker Mike Johnson is determined to push through the measures, even if it means risking his position.
The vote on aid for Ukraine is of particular interest in Kyiv, which has urgently appealed for increased support from its allies as Russia advances on the battlefield.
Should the House pass the bills, the Senate could approve the package as early as this weekend, with President Joe Biden committed to signing it into law.
Johnson’s proposal allocates $60.8 billion to Ukraine, $26.4 billion to Israel, and $8.1 billion to the Indo-Pacific region, including Taiwan. Each component will undergo a separate vote in the House, allowing for the possibility of approval for some while others may not pass.
Additionally, the Speaker is bringing a fourth piece of legislation to a vote, which includes provisions such as requiring ByteDance, a Chinese company, to divest itself of the TikTok social media app, authorizing the sale of frozen Russian assets, and imposing new sanctions on Russia, Iran, and China.
The outcomes of these votes will be consolidated into a single bill requiring approval by the Senate before reaching the president’s desk.
Mr. Johnson has also promised to introduce an immigration reform bill that contains provisions favored by conservative Republicans in an attempt to win over their support for the aid package.
But the border bill looks unlikely to pass as it would require the support of two-thirds of the House, as it is being submitted under a separate process.
Opinion polls suggest that a growing number of Republicans oppose any new aid to Ukraine. Some liberals are against military support for Israel.
While these sentiments were not enough to prevent the US Senate from passing legislation that contained support for both nations in February, it has been a different story in the House.
Mr Johnson has a slim majority in the chamber, and a handful of conservatives have threatened to push for his removal if he backs new Ukraine aid.
The effort, led by Georgia congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, has two other supporters so far: Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Paul Gosar of Arizona.
Up until now, the Speaker has been reluctant to challenge his right-wing critics. On Wednesday, however, he reversed course, saying his goal was to “do the right thing and let the chips fall where they may”.
Meanwhile, left-wing Democrats who object to Israel’s conduct of the war in Gaza have said that they will not allow the US to continue to be complicit in a human-rights catastrophe. The Israel aid bill contains $9bn in humanitarian aid, which may help win over some reluctant Democrats.
By allowing separate votes on Israel and Ukraine aid, Mr Johnson hopes to allow individual legislators to vote against provisions they dislike without sinking the entire effort.
Biden administration officials have warned that the situation in Ukraine is dire. The nation’s military is running short on munitions and morale is low, as the Russian army gains ground.
“There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put [Russian President Vladimir] Putin in a position where he could essentially dictate the terms of a political settlement,” CIA Director William Burns said during a speech in Texas on Thursday.
In an interview with the BBC on Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said his nation needed new support “yesterday, not tomorrow, not today” and warned that Ukraine would fall without American aid.
The situation for Israel’s military is vastly different to the situation for Ukraine’s military. But Mr Biden said that the nation’s high-tech air defences – which received their most formidable test in last weekend’s Iranian missile and drone assault – needed to be replenished.
“This is a pivotal moment,” Mr Biden wrote in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece on Wednesday that called for the House of Representatives to act.
On Thursday, Democrats joined with Republicans allied with Mr Johnson to ensure that the aid legislation cleared a formidable procedural hurdle in the House Rules Committee despite dissent in conservative ranks.
On Friday morning, a similar coalition of Democrats and pro-aid Republicans in the full House voted 316-94 to set up debate and final votes on the legislation on Saturday afternoon. This comfortable margin is a strong indication that a large bipartisan majority in the chamber is on course to approve the package.
Democratic support could also give Mr Johnson a political lifeline, as his strategy of bypassing his party’s hardcore conservatives to enact legislation may prompt them to follow through on their threats to force a vote on his removal.
A Speaker having to rely on the backing of the minority party, particularly on procedural votes, is rare in modern congressional history. But Mr Johnson’s hold on power is tenuous, and the legislators who oppose him and his bid to provide aid to Ukraine occupy some key positions within the House’s power structure.
Talking to reporters on Friday, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York said Mr Johnson had had to manage a “very unruly” group of Republicans and praised him for working to bring Ukraine aid to a vote.
Democrats may be wary of offering help to Mr Johnson, but the prospect of providing new aid to Ukraine – a top foreign policy priority to their party and Mr Biden – could make it worth the effort.
And that effort appears to be close to paying off.
